Disasters rising, but don't just blame climate change
Written by: Ruth Gidley

Residents of Kanchipara in Bangladesh wade through flood water, September 2007. REUTERS/Rafiqur Rahman
Natural catastrophes are on the rise, a new report by disaster experts confirms, with the number of recorded floods, storms and other weather emergencies increasing by 7.4 percent a year on average. But 2007 bucked the general trend, seeing a slight fall in disasters and the lowest death toll in a decade. Many scientists predict climate change will trigger more floods and droughts, but the report's researchers say global warming is only partly to blame for the general rise. "Climate change is probably an actor in this increase but not the major one," the report from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) School of Public Health in Belgium says. The fact that information about natural disasters is more accurate than it used to be is another reason behind the rise, according to the researchers who are based at the Catholic University of Louvain. Last year the number of natural disasters dropped to 405 from 423 in 2006. The death toll was around 17,000 and 211 million people were affected. The lower numbers were partly because there were fewer earthquakes and volcano eruptions than usual. Hydrological disasters like floods and storms killed nearly 9,000 people in 2007, with Asia hit hardest. Cyclone Sidr was the deadliest disaster of the year, killing 4,234 people in Bangladesh. Some 14 percent of the country's population was affected by natural disasters - the highest rate in Asia. But other countries had their share of major events too, with Mexico, Uruguay and Zambia experiencing their worst flooding since CRED began keeping disaster records in 1988. The two floods that hit the United Kingdom were exceptional, affecting more than 370,000 people, but Europe's experience of natural disasters is nonetheless relatively mild compared to most of the rest of the world. Despite the global upward trend in recorded disasters, the number of people affected remains more or less the same - an average of 234 million people a year between 2000 and 2006. CRED's analysts don't know if the relatively stable death toll over time means governments and communities are better at warning and response, or whether victims are more likely to be reported and recorded these days. You can find CRED's full disaster statistics online.
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Ruth Gidley has been on the AlertNet team since late 1999. Before that, she lived in Guatemala, working first with a small local NGO and then as a journalist for a Central American news service. Ruth, who has a Masters in Latin American Studies, has edited a book on human rights in Guatemala, and written chapters for books on truth monuments and on Native American traditions.