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What next for Kosovo?
Written by: Nina Brenjo
A Kosovo Albanian man passes in front of a monument to ethnic Albanian guerrillas killed during the 1998-99 war against Serb forces. REUTERS\Hazir Reka
The talks about the final status of Kosovo, which have dragged on for months, are officially over. What happens next seems to be anybody's guess, says the Balkans commentator Micha Glenny, writing in Britain's New Statesman. Kosovo Albanians are planning to declare independence soon and Serbia is refusing to listen to any argument containing the word 'independence', so can we expect another war in the province? Officially at least, both the Kosovo Albanian and Serbian sides have offered guarantees that they're not planning return to war in the next few months. But the reality on the ground may be different. "An incident, a provocation, and the security situation could unravel very quickly," LA Times says a senior official with the U.N. mission currently governing the province, according to the LA Times. "We have been very patient until now. But we fought and died just to establish a country. We could lose control in a second," Kushtrim Mahmutaj, who fought Serbian forces as a teenager, tells the paper. What with shadowy extremist groups emerging on both sides, the danger of renewed conflict is real, thinks the LA Times. Britain's Financial Times agrees. Kosovo officials should get the backing of the European Union before they declare independence. But even if they do, Serbs in northern Kosovo and Bosnian Serbs won't want to sit still, while Russia might want to "(stir) up trouble", according to the FT. Serbia, for its part, has mentioned an "action plan" in case Kosovo declares unilateral independence. But insiders insist that this is mere posturing, writes Ian Traynor in Britain's Guardian. "Nobody wants Kosovo independent, of course. But it's clear (Serbia) can't do much about it," Dragan Bujosevic, Belgrade commentator and TV chat show host, tells Traynor. When it comes to non-violent steps Serbia could adopt in order to undermine Kosovo's new state, there's been a talk of imposing a trade embargo against the province and cutting off electricity, writes Joshua Keating, researcher at the Washington-based Foreign Policy magazine. The trade embargo would hardly do much harm to the province as it would simply move underground, says Dejan Anastasijevic of Serbia's weekly Vreme, writing in Balkan Insight. As for electricity, this could prove trickier for Kosovo Albanians to deal with, but it would hit thousands of Serbs living in the region - something that Serbia would not like. One solution which has been championed by some commentators is the partition of the province. Glenny claims that all sides consider the split to be the inevitable consequence of any decision on Kosovo, but the "diplomatic cowardice has ensured that nobody has been prepared to articulate this clearly in public". "If this is what is going to happen in practice, why risk a war over what we call it in theory? Why not simply regularise the reality, and negotiate a peaceable partition?" agrees Britain's Daily Telegraph. A de facto partition of the province is the main reason the European Union is reluctantly going along with the U.S. recognition of Kosovo's independence, says Glenny. The recent internal disagreements over the issue have exposed it as an incompetent manager of affairs on its own continent. This, according to Glenny, is just what both U.S. and Russia had wanted. In addition, Russia is only using Kosovo as a "handy stick" to beat the West with and show it still counts, says the International Herald Tribune. Possibly more than that, Russia is trying to stop further NATO expansion in the Balkans, according to Radio Free Europe's Melazim Koci. "What began as a humanitarian mission to stop ethnic cleansing has become part of a new balance of power in Europe", Toronto Star quotes a veteran BBC Balkan correspondent Humphrey Hawksley, writing in Yale University publication YaleGlobal Online. Even the war NATO waged against Serbia in 1999 was never just about Kosovo, says Eric Jansson in the Balkan Insight. It may still be early to predict what will happen with Kosovo and, indeed, with the whole region. But whatever the outcome, it is likely to depend heavily on the interests of the main international players.
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21 responses to “What next for Kosovo?”
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17 Jan 2008 08:44:05 GMT
Simple solution to the problem is to leave Kosovo in Serbia. By all rights Kosovo was always Serbian and by law Serbia does have international recognize borders, by the whole world. Who are we (The West) to make it different or to be above to law and bend it the way we think it should be. I don't see the Serbs forcing albanians to live in their country. If they don't like living in Serbia then LEAVE, simple as that.We don't care about Serbia or albanians living there we are just fighting over the influence in Balkan teritories, just like with all former republics of Yugoslavia.
18 Jan 2008 08:53:24 GMT
Hi Donna, I don´t know if you ever read any article about Kosovo History, but I will ask you just one Question? Tell a date in this existing life that in Kosovo were MORE than 10% Serbs living over there and Albanians were below Serbs in number in any time. With this that you have wrote it down ealier on it seems that you never heard about Kosovo History. It´s so easy to talk about other countries or people, but before you write anything please you should give very good arguments about it. Thanks
21 Jan 2008 10:31:57 GMT
Hi Agron,
I am Serbian born in Decane small town close to Pec (Peja) and Djakovica (Djakove). If you don't know where it is now you can find it on map much easier. Your facts are incorrect. I remember that albanian people always refused to live in peace with Serbian people. I also remember that (1963 - 1972) you had more right than then Serbian people in their own country. You remember but you don't want to admit that for every holiday there was three Albaninan flag on one flag of Yugoslavia. Don't tell me that you didn't have your own education system. As I know Pristina university was probably only one university in the world for education on minority language. And you are talking abaout 10%. After WWII started all my family (grandfather ....) together with the rest of Serbian population was expelled from Kosovo in almost one day. After WWWII Tito brought resolution that no Serb could be returned to Kosovo. He is the same one who gave you autonomy in 1974. My grandfather returned back risking his life. After WWWII border with Albania was open thousend of Albanians start to move at kosovo rununig away from powerty and communist regime with Enver Hodja. That was not enough. While Serbian family had max three kids mostly two or one Albanian family had from 7 to 13. You never respected the country in which you were living. You never pay any bill for water, electricity, books. As you remember every republic in Yugoslavia was obligated to help Kosovo. They didn't know they are supporting you fight for independence. You were with Turks agains Serbs You were with Hitler against Serbs. Today you are with USA against Serbs. Nice company. Greatings from Dusan. Toaday I can not go to Decane and visit Decane Monastry but one day maybe vary soon ...21 Jan 2008 10:35:49 GMT
Donna
You are advocating ethnic cleansing. Shocking! It is precisely this kind of attitude that is sadly prevalent in Serbia that means that Serbia does not deserve Kosovo. Kosovo is for all ethnic groups. To date Serbia has not shown that it can inclusively govern Albanians, Bosniaks or Roma. Serbia has only ever had ambitions for the territory, not for the people. I agree with Agron. Read the history. Albanians did not come over the mountains. They were always there and either way they are there now in large numbers and their wishes have to be considered. They and the international community have a plan to protect and embrace all ethnic communities. This, to me is the only solution - supervised independence with minority protection.21 Jan 2008 15:53:13 GMT
Dear Agron, The history can not be fear to all people in one and same time. In Turkey, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and south-east Romania have lived bulgarian people. Bulgaria is a country which borders are passing thru its teritory. Pure bulgarian people are living from the both sides of the borders. But many, many decades Bulgaria lives in peace with its neighbours. And all we accept the unfear thrut that the peace does not need any alternatives.
27 Jan 2008 10:16:33 GMT
Let's look at it this way.
Serbia is a young democracy while Kosovo is being run by a former terror commander of the KLA and is protected by the U.S. and the NATO alliance. The U.S., EU nad NATO want to take Kosovo away from Serbia in defiance of international law, treaties and basic sovereignty without proper diplomacy. That's an act of war if you ask me. That's ok because recent statements by the top Russian general Gen Yuri Baluyevsky quoted as saying "We do not intend to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons," he said. The U.S. is risking instability in the Balkans because they lack proper diplomatic skills, what a shame.28 Jan 2008 14:14:50 GMT
Balkan Lawyer,
Serbia has only ambitions for land and not its people? What the heck are the Albanians then doing by trying to take land away from their soverign owners? It seems the Albanians want to take land away and not remain a part of Serbia. You got it all wrong. Let me remind you that it was Serbia that negotiated and allowed Montenegro to leave just a few years ago. Serbia is a willing partner, but you have to act diplomatically and put an effort to speak to them unlike the Albanian delegation headed by former KLA terror commanders and the U.S. and top EU nations. Diplomacy, learn what it means. Serbia does not deserve Kosovo you say? Looks like your not a real lawyer because please state where is says in international law let alone UN Resolution 1244 that a nation is not deserving of its territory and can be ripped away? Your the lawyer right, please find such laws on the books. While your at it please prove "ethnic cleansing". Anybody (like the NATO alliance)can simply spoon feed the media like they did back in 1999 but it's one thing to say it happened and another to prove it. Looks like "ethnic cleansing" will be remembered along side the famed lost WMD's before Iraq was invaded. Lies, fabrications who really questions what leaders say anymore? They just print at face value and the sheep believe them in droves! Hmmm let's take a look at Kosovo before NATO stepped in shall we. KLA terrorists rose up and tried to take Kosovo away for their Greater Albania dream. The Serbs responded by sending in the Serb 3rd Army and they were defeating the terrorists until NATO stepped in. After the failed negotiations at Rambouilett thanks to the U.S. side laying an ultinatum down insteade of negotiating, NATO went on the offensive in defiance of their own treaty (I suggest you read it) which is also placed under the UN Charter so going further in defiance of international law and attacked Serbia that never threatened not one NATO state. After NATO bombs fall did we see a mass exodus of Albanian REFUGEES from Kosovo, get it right. After NATO troops moved in, well actually 200 Russian troops seized the Pristina Airport before NATO could arrive and blockaded entry, did we see another exodus of REFUGEES from Kosovo, this time 200,000 Serbs and it was like NATO did not give a hoot. On top of that since NATO arrived over 150 Christian churches some on the world heritage list have been blown up or burned down. It is still sad to see pictures today of Christian churches under guard by NATO troops because the local terrorists are waiting for the day they leave their post to burn them down. Sad but true. The U.S., EU, NATO and the KLA that still runs Kosovo lack credibility here. The Serbian people did what NATO bombs could never do and that was remove Milosevich, so his era has been over with for quite a while now and Serbia has moved on to become a rising democracy. But the U.S., EU, NATO and the KLA continue to think they are above the law and still have not proven a darn thing they claimed before NATO intervened and now they want to steal land away without justification? War begins because of stupid policy moves like this and the Russians are correct when their foreign minister states that the west must respect international law with Kosovo.28 Jan 2008 14:21:06 GMT
Dear readers, all of you have personal interests involded, meaning that you are either Albanian or Serbs your judgemnts are not pure, however pls Dusan Todorovic, have you ever asked yourself why so much rights to the albanians in Kosovo? Donna, where were you during the ethnic cleaning made by Serb forces in the region?Have you ever watched the Tv during that time? Pete,Were you expecting Russian diplomacy to say anything else?as far as i remember this were the russian diplomacy culture concluding, as far as Serbs has economic interest in the region , or the albanians nationalist interest Belive Me the best thing is indipendence, for the region and for serbian. People, the world is changing,is crazy to make this problem more longer, think about economic opportunities that serbia is missing due to this "Regional Instability" BRGDS
29 Jan 2008 12:59:07 GMT
Dorian,
Can you please prove this so-called "ethnic cleansing?" Read a little history and you will find out why Kosovo means so much to the Serbian culture more than to Albanian immigrants. Some of the oldest Christian churches in Europe can be found in Kosovo, at least the ones that survived the bombing and torching by Albanians, some 150 since NATO arrived!04 Feb 2008 12:31:12 GMT
Hi to everyone!! I am from Belgrade and have to admit that I stoped to participate in these discusions log time ago. But the subject is steel interestig ( unfortinatly). I hate that story " how averyone want to take avay Kosovo from Serbia". The trouth is that we didn t know to keep it. Realy it thtouth noone takes care about people there and the solution that Serbian govermant ofering is little bit schisofrenic. My point is that we already lost Kosovo we just have to admit that.
04 Feb 2008 12:40:19 GMT
"A Kosovo Albanian man passes in front of a monument to ethnic Albanian guerrillas killed during the 1998-99 war against Serb forces. REUTERS\Hazir Reka"
You know the KLA was classified as an international terrorist group before UN Resolution 1244 dis-banded them. So in reality Reuters is showing us a picture of dead terrorists. Nice to know that Kosovo today is being run by the former KLA commander himself, Hashim Thaci, an international terror leader. Guess who is supporting him? Yup the U.S. and most, not all EU states, how pathetic! No wonder why people who understand reality will never support an independent Kosovo unless Serbia (a democracy) allows it.06 Feb 2008 10:07:58 GMT
Why do any of you find any of this surprising in the slightest? The EU and US both want an instable Balkans, it makes them appear civilised when in fact they are the real butchers. Giving Kosovo independence sets a dangerous precedent that will ultimately backfire on the EU. Catalonia, Basque territories, Republika Srpska (Bosnian) not to mention Ossetia and others. And no doubt the trouble will engulf Macedonia and the Balkan Wars of this century shall begin, all because the West brings it upon themselves to play map-drawers where they do not belong.
06 Feb 2008 10:08:06 GMT
"The decision to illegally send a mission means that together with Albanian separatists the EU creates, contrary to all international law principles, an artificial Albanian state in the territory of Serbia," underscored Premier Kostunica.
Kostunica said the EU has directly violated Serbia's sovereignty, territorial integrity and constitutional order with this decision. EU Violates Serbia's Sovereignty! Remember the EU does not belong to the UN nor is it a nation, who the hell do they think they are? Maybe the UN should adobt sanctions on all of its members for violating Serbia's sovereignty. I foresee war now more than ever and if Russia enters the picture......... Serbian government on verge of collapse... Serbia's Investment Minister Velimir Ilic, who is allied with Kostunica in the coalition, said that if Tadic's ministers sign the agreement with the EU on Thursday, the Cabinet could fall. "Thursday is D-day," Ilic said. "If they sign, anything can happened with the government." "If someone wants to enter the EU at any price, and the EU wants to snatch 15 percent of our territory, I will not sit in that government," Ilic said. The pieces are slowly falling into place for a wider war in the Balkans thanks to the EU and the U.S. for supporting international terrorists. What ever happened to respect for international laws and treaties? I guess if the U.S. and NATO could illegally invade Serbia why not the EU. This is a dangerous precedent folks, very dangerous.07 Feb 2008 10:56:11 GMT
i want to know why is it that the serbs think we came from over the mountions or from albania or from mars .we were allways there in that region called the balkans from ulqin till southern albanian town gjiokastra for thausands of years . i think that the barbarian serbs crossed the danube river in 15 century.however i keep forgeting that the people who write threats on this site are not that intelligent to begin with.
10 Feb 2008 11:10:27 GMT
If you want your greater Albania, move back to Albania and try and fix up your home country that sits as one of the top 5 most corrupt places on the planet. Resorting to terrorism to try and steal Kosovo away shows how un-intelligent and un-diplomatic some Albanians are.
Kosovo belongs to Serbia, your dis-banded kla brothers need to understand what sovereignty is and what international law means! You do not like it there, 2 things: with a democratic Serbia today you can try peaceful, civiliszed and diplomatic approach or just simply leave. Nobody is forcing you to live there now are they?13 Feb 2008 11:43:48 GMT
i think Kosovo must be in Europe mision administration for lot of years becouse albanians are not ready too take resposobility for Kosovo,they are not love each other ,they are very jelouse nation,they dont want u 2 see good.So Kosovo its not ready for indipendent for the moment
18 Feb 2008 14:23:17 GMT
Today Kosovo has declared its independence, as I'm sure you're all aware. I myself am from the Balkan region, most of the countries there are already screwed up and division won't bother me that much since I don't live there now. However, what does bother me is the things that I saw today almost assure me that another Balkan war is brewing, at the least.
Serbs are obviously upset, since Kosovo is like their Jerusalem, that was the first place the Serboii tribe settled, until the expulsion by the Ottoman empire. For the most part it was majority Serbian until WWII, where the Italian puppet-state of Albania was formed, which included Kosovo and other Serbian parts, from which they were expelled again. That is the time that the Shqiptarie population was becoming the majority. Also during the communist era of Albania, huge amounts of Albanians emigrated to Kosovo. They had full autonomy and even extra rights over all other minorities in Yugoslavia, but the way they responed to it in their Newspapers was "FUCK YU". And that's exactly what they did... I also find the claims of Albanians living forever on Kosovo an obvious fairie tale. Serbs didn't live on it forever either. Albanians didn't come from the mountains... they migrated from what today is modern Georgia, between the Caspian and Black Sea, in the 12th century to the Balkans. Slavs also migrated from other lands in the 7th century to the Balkans, which included the Serb and Croat tribes. Some Albanians put historical claim on Kosovo, because the Balkans were settled in the Ancient Days by Illyrian tribes. Albanians think they're Illyrian... yet they didn't come to the Balkans until the 12th century. Ultimately this was a bad decision by the West. The Balkans are already screwed up as is, and when they had not intervened already at the beginning of the Yugoslav wars, then there is no need for them to intervene now and just make it worse. It is unbelivable how many international laws and treaties have been broken by the West, just in their participation with the Balkans. NATO had no right to bomb Serbia, because it was simply supposed to be a deterrant to the Warsaw pact, and most importantly a DEFENSIVE alliance of its OWN members, and not an international police force. Huge atrocities have been committed by all sides in the Yugoslav wars, and no one is to blame the other, they should be left to work things out together, with internation supervision but not adminisration. The more I looked at all the things that happened and are happening, the more it seemed to me as a repeat of history, for better or for worse. Serbia was the spark of WWI, will it be true again for WWII! If Kosovo successfully declares independence, vast territories will be looking for their independence in other nations, which will cause inevitable civil wars across the globe, and an ever-so-seemingly closer WWIII.19 Feb 2008 16:25:39 GMT
what i don't understand is, why "west" so obviously is anti serb/ anti slavic? anyone can see that there is a sort of "plan" against serbs which is hidden agenda behind all these endless bloodshed. what is it? also, i'm really concerned about the way it is done. looks like a conspiracy to me - all stuff is stirred up by us behind un and against un resolutions. are we living in a world of conspiracy now? passively observing what some powerful unknowns are doing being hidden from sight... are we moving to another big war? why for Christ sake? who needs this?
21 Feb 2008 11:52:58 GMT
It's not a conspiracy. The west is anti-Serb because the Serbs are the first people to stand up to the globalists and say NO!
I commend the Serbs for their bravery and I shame the west for supporting known terrorists and. The west has proven to me now that they are no longer Christian, they are pro-Muslim!31 Mar 2008 13:53:33 GMT
So much for Kosovo being for moral reasons by the west.
According to a report in the Christian Science Monitor, the news agency Reuters obtained a copy of an official and confidential Serbian government briefing note on the outcome of a meeting between American and Serbian officials in which the US apparently warned the Serbians about "â¦the political influence Moscow would gain by controlling energy resources in Serbia and the region, and expressed a negative assessment about the economic justification of South Streamâ¦" Moreover the Southeastern European Times have observed a Putinâs speech in Zagreb on June 2007, where he stated that âRussia wants to build underground storage facilities in several Balkan states, which will not only improve energy supplies to the region, but will make it more attractive and more important from the perspective of solving energy problems in Europe as a whole." In reality that means Moscow is willing to invest in the whole spectrum of the Balkan energy infrastructure and control supply to the EU. The unilateral declaration of Kosovo is the thorniest issue in current USA-Russia relations. It is unlikely that Russia will back-off from its adamant position of not recognizing Kosovo, and actively pursuing the growth of its influence in the region. Apart from the tremendous investments in energy projects, that as it was mentioned above; are just a tactic of its grander Eurasian strategy, there is a very strong motive of keeping up with its policy of conducting diplomatic relations based on international law & state sovereignty. A classic approach to that is the statement by Vitaly Churkin, Russia's UN ambassador who voiced Moscow's opposition to Kosovo's declaration of independence, on February 2008. The Balkans are bound to become once again a political theater of rivalry between superpowers, on which USA stakes to loose a lot considering the perilous position it maintains in other fronts such as Iraq, Afghanistan-Pakistan, even South America. On the other hand Russia has made a long way since 1999 and its energy exports are deemed as essential by the majority of European countries. Consequently the transnational economic interests will balance the act by siding in many respects with the Russians, for reasons purely related to profit and market access. Diplomatic initiatives that are not backed by economic motivations, sooner or latter become a dangerous blowback and the United States have invested a substantial of political capital in Kosovo without a clear economic end to it. On another level, certain Balkan capitals will rival other global ones, as âEspionage & agent crossroadsâ. Sarajevo, Belgrade and Pristina will most certainly rise even more in the world espionage network, while Sofia, Athens and Skopje will follow suit. Expect also a surge of propaganda & counterpropaganda publications that will side on the highest bidder, or in some remote cases for purely ideological reasons. The only stable parameter nowadays is the continuation of the USA-Russian rivalry that will lead to peripheral shift of balances (i.e. Balkans, Caucasus, Iran) and the diverging interests of the EU member states due to Russian dependency on natural gas mostly. The role of the countries in the midst of the antagonisms, such as Poland, the Baltic States, Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine will shed light for the mid-long term consequences of Russiaâs energy expansion.18 Apr 2008 21:21:04 GMT
Those people who oppose independence for kosovo appear to base their wishfulness on at least five premises: 1)No new nations can rise. This premise was used by evil empires against croatia, slovenia, bosnia, kosovo, M. Negro, and macedonia. however, new nations do rise. Just millennia ago serbs, slovenes, and croats were one people, but no longer. Germans and english were at one time one people; becoming two and even waging wars against each other. 2) croats, kosovars are bad, etc. Ergo bad people who have done wrongs do not deserve self rule. In other words, collective punishment is OK for crimes commited by individuals or gov'ts. Both US and israel are doing just that, punishing millions for crimes perpetrated by individuals or in case of iraq. Instead of issuing warrant for saddam's arest or putting $millions or billions ransom on his head, US had decided to punish civilians. 3)seniority rights. Serbs were there before albanians. Albanians immigrated to kosovo, etc. People who oppose Kosovan claim to nationhood forget or don't know albanians, being descendants of Illyrians, have resided in much of the balkans for 2,000 years before slavs arrived. thus may have been also on kosovo all along. even so, all this is irrelevant to the question to whom belongs a homogeneous region such as kosovo or expalestine. Both the expalestine and kosovo belongs to Palestenians and kosovars respectiveley. Chchnya belongs to chechens; tibet to tibetans, etc. 4)Int'l laws are being violated in the break up of sovereign country. but these laws have been writen by empires to suit their needs or to cement land gains obtained thur threats or warfare. thank you